Historical Earnings Track Record
AMZN, a Consumer Cyclical/Specialty Retail name, has beaten consensus earnings in 7 of the last 8 reported quarters for an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 50.5%. That top-line accuracy metric matters because it defines the baseline probability traders price into options ahead of each report. Over the same eight quarters, the average 5-day post-earnings drift has been 1.08%, classified as an upward drift. The headline average, however, masks uneven reactions. The most recent report on 2026-07-30 delivered actual EPS of $5.75 against an estimate of $1.82, a 215.9% surprise that drove a 15.32% next-day move. Yet the following five days showed a null% follow-through, meaning the entire reaction compressed into the overnight gap. The prior quarter, 2026-04-29, produced a 70.6% surprise ($2.78 actual vs $1.63 estimate) but a 0.77% next-day move and a 4.54% gain over the next five sessions, suggesting expectations had been priced in. The lone miss in this window came on 2026-02-05, when actual EPS of $1.95 missed the $1.97 estimate, a -1% surprise, and the stock fell 5.55% the next day and 10.37% over the following five days. The 2025-10-30 report, with a 24.2% beat ($1.95 actual vs $1.57 estimate), generated a 9.58% next-day jump and a 9.06% five-day run. The 88% beat rate is therefore not a guarantee of a one-day rally; the size and distribution of the move depend on how much of the result was already embedded.
Options-Flow Dynamics Around the October Report
AMZN's next scheduled report is after the close on 2026-10-29, with the current consensus EPS estimate at $1.96. Because the 50-day EMA sits at $244.12 and the stock was last at $271.58, the price is extended above a short-term anchor, a position reflected in elevated implied volatility for near-dated options. The historical average post-earnings drift of 1.08% is modest relative to single-event implied moves, which means the options market prices larger one-day straddle risk than the realized five-day drift. That dynamic creates a scenario where the directional move must be large enough to overcome premium decay. The 215.9% surprise in July already demonstrated that AMZN can gap far beyond the official consensus; traders tracking flow into the October report should watch whether flow is pricing an implied move larger than the 1.08% historical five-day drift.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
A disciplined earnings setup for AMZN starts with the realization that the 88% beat rate and 50.5% average surprise describe historical reporting accuracy, not future returns. Key reference levels include the 50-day EMA at $244.12, the last price at $271.58, and an RSI of 67.9, which shows the stock near but not yet at conventionally overbought territory. Around the 2026-10-29 report, traders compare the options-implied one-day move against the realized average of 1.08% over five sessions and the larger individual next-day moves such as 15.32%, -5.55%, and 9.58%. A wide gap between implied and realized volatility can signal mispricing regardless of direction. The October consensus of $1.96 is also a hard benchmark; any deviation from that number, whether beat or miss, will be measured against how much distance already exists between price and the 50-day EMA. For a deeper dive, readers should look at the full institutional verdict and cross-reference it with these historical figures.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has AMZN beaten earnings estimates?
Over the last eight reported quarters, AMZN beat consensus earnings in seven of them, for an 88% beat rate.
What was AMZN's largest earnings surprise in the recent data?
On 2026-07-30, AMZN reported actual EPS of $5.75 against an estimate of $1.82, a 215.9% positive surprise.
When is AMZN's next scheduled earnings report?
AMZN is scheduled to report after the close on 2026-10-29, with the current consensus EPS estimate at $1.96.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $5.75 | $1.82 | +215.9% | +15.32% | null% |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.78 | $1.63 | +70.6% | +0.77% | +4.54% |
| 2026-02-05 | $1.95 | $1.97 | -1% | -5.55% | -10.37% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.95 | $1.57 | +24.2% | +9.58% | +9.06% |
| 2025-07-31 | $1.68 | $1.31 | +28.2% | - | - |
| 2025-05-01 | $1.59 | $1.37 | +16.1% | - | - |
Previous AMZN editions
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